The Stock Market’s 18.5-Year Cycle Shows 2019 Rally
Welcome to 2019.
As we ring in the new year, it’s also a time to pull out our crystal balls to make major predictions on what to expect over the next 12 months.
If you know me, you know I don’t use crystal balls. But I do have a 100-year-old calendar that has been very accurate.
We do this every year — make predictions.
Few come true over the following 12 months. But my prediction last year was spot on.
Here’s what I warned you about:
“This year, 2018, will likely see the market panics that play into a larger draw-down and a rise in volatility.”
Less than a month later, the stock market began going through its first correction of the year.
And in October, we got the second downdraft, making 2018 the year volatility returned to the stock market.
Here we are, exactly 12 months after that spot-on prediction, and I go back to my trusty 100-year-old calendar to see what 2019 has in store.
Prepare for the Next Major Rally in the Stock Market
It was a bold call to see volatility coming back this year. As you may recall, 2017 was a year of historically low volatility — the draw-down of just 3%.
In 2018, stocks plunged more than 20% for the S&P 500 Index.
Heading into 2019, I won’t try to predict the size of the draw-down, because there is likely some volatile periods still to come.
But the 100-year-old calendar tells us now is no longer the time to panic. Instead, we should be buying this dip and getting prepared for the next major rally in the stock market.
Here’s the exact letter for each of the surrounding years. Take a look:
In 2016, we see that it has an E year, denoting high stock prices are expected.
The F in 2017 represents market panics likely, which was pushed into early 2018.
Then in 2018, we have a G, which signals for very low stock prices. The greater than 20% crash in the S&P 500 we saw since October represents that playing out.
The next letter on the calendar is in 2020 with an H, representing very high stock prices.
This is what the current volatility is setting up for: a strong multiyear run.
That’s why I have been cautioning that you don’t want to let the volatile market we saw in 2018 force you to exit great opportunities.
Because in the coming months, the stock market is going to mount a historic rally, one that will take it to new all-time highs. You simply don’t want to miss out on it.
18.5-Year Market Cycle
One of the biggest reasons I’m not panicking during this extreme market volatility is because this calendar, the 18.5-year market cycle, isn’t expecting a major stock market downturn until 2022 — that’s what the J stands for.
J signals a major panic or crash. This is a period that can have prolonged weakness in stock prices of even three or four years.
The cycle we are going through now is the typical ups and downs of the market — we just weren’t used to seeing it after the extremely low volatile years in 2016 and 2017.
Don’t let it spook you now.
Just as this calendar predicted 2018 would be a volatile year, it is signaling 2019 and 2020 to be extremely profitable periods to invest in.
You do not want to miss out on these years.
Happy New Year!
Chad Shoop, CMT
Editor, Automatic Profits Alert